Xauusd price forecast may 2025 geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe

Geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets, making the "XAUUSD price forecast May 2025" trend skew toward upside potential. Moody's, in a recent research report, said its forecast of gold prices at $3,000 by the end of 2026 reflects expectations for modest declines in growth and "the risk that things get worse." Specifically, it cited recession risks in key markets. Technical traders are watching the support zone between $3,228.38 and $3,164.23, with particular focus on the 50-day moving average at $3,151.00. This level is viewed as a critical inflection point. According to trader analysis, if gold breaks through this entire support zone and tests the 50-day moving average directly, a bounce is possible. However, failure to hold above $3,151 would likely trigger another steep selloff, with the 200-day moving average at $2,787.04 as the next major downside target. Futures market open interest increased to a 7-month high, a signal often preceding price rallies, supportive of a bullish "XAUUSD price forecast May 2025" narrative.