Wti futures price advanced to $79

WTI futures price advanced to $79.05 after China’s stimulus measures boosted global commodity sentiment. Market players eye the 200-day moving average as a key psychological level. Crude prices are also under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects the global oil market is headed for a record surplus next year of 3.33 million bpd, about 360,000 bpd more than they projected a month ago, as OPEC+ continues to revive production. The crude oil market is gripped by volatility, driven by US-China tariff escalations, OPEC+ production increases, and geopolitical uncertainties, reshaping futures dynamics for speculators and hedgers. The EIA's downgraded Brent outlook for 2025 and 2026 reflects a global demand growth cut to 0.9 million b/d, signaling weaker fundamentals and shifting December 2025 and forward WTI futures into a deeper contango structure. OPEC+'s surprise 411,000 b/d output hike starting May, announced in early April, risks swelling inventories from Q2, while sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, alongside China's tariff-driven economic slowdown, create supply-demand volatility. Traders could consider bear spreads—selling near-term, buying longer-dated contracts—to capture demand weakness or use straddles on mid-2025 Brent options to play volatility, monitoring key WTI support levels for momentum shifts. Hedgers, particularly producers, may consider selling mid-2025 futures to secure cash flows, while refiners might delay locking in purchases, using options to hedge against potential supply disruptions. WTI futures price remains steady at $78.95, drawing support from steady Asian demand. Futures traders note the shrinking open interest in front-month contracts as signal of possible upward repricing.