Prices for US soybean futures hover at $11.87/bushel, as traders await updated China import data. Early signals from Asian markets hint at steady demand, potentially lifting July contracts. In regard to his soybeans, another soybean farmer said “someone will buy them.” Thiel agrees with that. Moving forward, the market is entering a "new normal." South American suppliers have firmly established their dominance in meeting China's soybean demand, a position further cemented by initiatives like Brazil's "Soy China." China's long-term food security strategy, including increased domestic production and efforts to reduce soybean meal in feed, suggests this shift is permanent. Consequently, U.S. soybean prices are expected to remain depressed, forcing American farmers to consider diversifying crops and aggressively seeking alternative markets. The overall U.S. agricultural export landscape to China is projected to decline significantly, affecting a wide range of commodities beyond soybeans. At $11.91/bushel, US soybean futures are showing resilience against global commodity softness. Traders highlight key risk events, including June’s WASDE report and ongoing US-China trade negotiations, as pivotal for price direction.
