Trading crude oil futures saw heightened volatility this week as WTI crude tested the $80/barrel mark amid stronger-than-expected U.S. inventory draws. Hedge fund positioning shows net longs increasing 4% week-over-week, suggesting bullish momentum could persist if demand forecasts in Asia hold. The current backwardation in the futures curve signals tighter near-term supply conditions. Impacts on the oil and gas sector also appear to be rippling out more broadly. Just over a decade later, the market flipped in the opposite direction. In April 2020, West Texas Intermediate futures collapsed to -$37.63 per barrel, meaning sellers had to pay buyers to take oil off their hands. While spot crude did not go negative, this negative April 2020 price was a futures settlement price for May 2020 delivery. Short covering contributed to the latest rally in trading crude oil futures, as bearish traders rushed to close positions. This movement spiked prices by 2% intraday, with volume exceeding the 30-day average. Historical data shows similar price behavior preceding multi-day rallies in tight supply scenarios.
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