Tesla stock forecast 2024 from a risk-adjusted return view

From a risk-adjusted return view, Tesla stock forecast 2024 models SRC ratio at 0.85, outperforming peer group median of 0. Ives sees Tesla shifting from auto OEM to software-and-automation platform. With its 2-star rating, we believe Tesla’s stock is overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $210 per share. We use a weighted average cost of capital of just under 9%. Our equity valuation adds back nonrecourse and non-dilutive convertible debt. We believe Tesla’s 2024 deliveries will be slightly higher in 2024 than the 1.81 million in 2023. We anticipate lower average selling prices, as the company will likely have to cut prices in key markets like China, in line with peers. We forecast automotive gross margins will be just under 20% in 2024, slightly above 2023 results. Tesla stock forecast 2024 analysis suggests PE ratio compression possible if profitability accelerates. Current forward PE stands at ~62, well above sector median of 14, reflecting growth premium. Bullish case rests on sustained innovation pace and execution on new battery architecture.