SRW wheat futures entered the week with a firm tone, hovering near $6. Crop Production data will be updated today, with a Bloomberg survey of analysts showing all wheat production tightening by 14 mbu to 1.907 bbu, mainly on the lower harvested acres found at the end of June. Winter wheat is seen at 1.362 bbu, down 19 mbu from last month, with spring wheat seen at mbu and durum at 78 mbu. Wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 are seen at 894, just 4 mbu lower vs. last month. World wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 are seen at 262.5 MMT according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, which is slightly below the 262.8 MMT from last month. We normally think of managed funds as the “smart money”, but sometimes they do get it wrong. Last week was a prime example. The funds were caught out with sizable short positions on wheat, as the market surged higher on the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Stronger-than-expected Philippines import tenders have reinforced bullish sentiment within the front-month contract.
