The current "SP 500 stock price forecast" range reflects cautious optimism, supported by stable credit spreads and a relatively dovish tone from recent Fed remarks. Sure, prices can move much more quickly and more significantly over short time periods than analysts’ forecasts for the next 12 months’ earnings. But earnings tend to trend higher. That means as time passes, the forward “E” tends to move up, putting downward pressure on forward P/Es. How should you trade the S&P 500 Index in the second half of 2025? The answer depends on what type of trader you are. If you prefer to follow trends and momentum and won’t second-guess every trend-following opportunity that shows up, you will want to be long of the S&P 500 Index and use a trailing stop. When the S&P 500 Index rises to new record highs, it usually goes on to rise by at least a few percentage points, and this can be seen plainly by looking at historic price data. On the other hand, you might be the type of trader that does not want to follow a trend unless you believe in it, and in this case, I have presented reasons why a medium-term correction is likely to happen this year. Should stagflation take hold, a bear market will follow any correction. The second-quarter earnings season could dictate third-quarter price action. A correction from all-time highs to the 61.8% ascending Fibonacci Retracement Fan level is likely, given the headwinds. It would place the S&P 500 into the 5,500 to 5,600 area. A breakout above the rising wedge could pressure the S&P 500 towards 6,500, from where I would anticipate a correction. Despite my view of what is likely to happen, as a trend trader I hold a long position in the S&P 500 Index as it is breaking to new highs, and I will continue to hold it until the trailing stop I use stops me out. Ready to trade our S&P 500 forecast for the second half of 2025? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers in the world . The "SP 500 stock price forecast" has been upgraded by several sell-side firms, with targets around 5,220–5,250 as earnings revisions trend positive across multiple sectors.