Soybean price forecast 2025 market analysts reviewing soybean price

Market analysts reviewing soybean price forecast 2025 stress the importance of monitoring the South American harvest schedule. A delay in shipments could tilt CBOT prices toward bullish breakouts. “Farmers out here are not wanting a handout,” Richardson said, adding producers “would just as soon get their check from a local elevator rather than from the government.” Trump’s latest comment on China helped lift soybean prices. Benchmark futures traded near $10.20 per bushel on Oct. 2, after dipping below $10 the day before. Still, the market remains depressed due to ample global supplies and a cloudy demand outlook. The oilseed used in animal feed and biofuel suffered their steepest two-year slide in nearly a decade in 2023–24 and have been mostly flat since. The stakes have rarely been higher for U.S. farm families and the Republican officeholders they tend to support. Without a deal with China, American soybean growers may face “significant losses, adding even more financial stress to crop farms,” according to Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier, researchers at Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture . “Rising input expenses, such as fertilizer, chemicals, and seed, combined with declining domestic prices, are already shrinking profits” for farmers, they wrote . “Moreover, many producers may be forced to store their harvested soybeans rather than sell at steep losses, impacting the entire supply chain – from grain elevators and processors to the rail network that moves the crop across the country.” Image Harvested soybeans are dropped into a grain elevator for storage during a harvest. (Ben Brewer/Bloomberg) What’s more, Brazil has capitalized on Trump’s trade war with China to cement its dominance in the global soybean market. Growers in the South American nation are expected to further expand plantings this season, paving the way for another record harvest in early 2026. “We strongly urge President Trump to quickly negotiate a resolution to this trade conflict that ensures China will remove its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybean exports — before we permanently lose additional market share,” said Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer who heads the American Soybean Association. China’s reluctance to buy soybeans so far signals Beijing has the patience and capacity to wait — and highlights how the commodity has become a bargaining chip in broader trade talks. Crushers, pig farmers and feed producers have built up higher-than-usual inventories, and the country’s reserves provide an additional buffer. That pushes any urgency to scoop up US supplies to at least the first quarter of 2026, Bloomberg reported last month. For U.S. farmers, the best they may be able to hope for in the short term is government assistance to see them through tractor-loan payments and other high-dollar obligations. Trump reiterated the U.S.’s plan to use tariff revenue to fund farmer aid. “We’ve made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers. I WILL NEVER LET OUR FARMERS DOWN!” Trump posted. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins last week said $2 billion from an existing emergency-assistance program for growers would soon be disbursed. Still, the payments could be delayed by the funding stalemate between Democrats and Republicans that triggered the government shutdown. “The Democrats are blocking billions in disaster relief payments from reaching farmers – relief they voted for,” the USDA said by email in response to questions. “Senate Democrats shut down the government on the eve of one of the worst farm economies.” Iowa farmer Bruce Lantzky doesn’t like the idea of relying on government aid, but if all else fails, he’ll take it. “We’re obviously not going to turn anything down,” he said in an interview. “If we can make it work without it, great.” Want more news? Listen to today's daily briefing below or go here for more info: Globally, the smaller U.S. harvest expected in 2025 and reduced imports from the European Union, Iran and Vietnam will tighten the global soybean balance sheet. Despite minor adjustments to Argentina’s trade, the cuts to the U.S. soybean crop in 2025 were the primary driver of USDA’s 1.2 MMT reduction to 2025/26 global ending stocks, which landed just below trade expectations at 124.9 MMT. Soybean price forecast 2025 sentiment analysis highlights growing speculative long positions in futures, with hedge funds taking advantage of seasonal planting uncertainty. Market watchers call for increased vigilance on South American crop reports.