The soybean futures price currently stands at $11.73 per bushel. Futures curves suggest upward tilts in deferred contracts, indicating market participants expect tighter supplies in late 2024 due to weather volatility. "You just don't want to lose that market share to them because they just continue to grow acres and grow good crops down there," he said in an interview Monday. How frequent are contrasting initial and overall reactions to USDA supply and demand information? To place the September 12 price reversal in some limited context, Figure 2 compares initial and overall price reactions for new-crop 2025 futures contracts on report days since May 2025 when the first 2025/26 WASDE balance sheet was published. In addition to the five WASDE releases, the June 30 Acreage report is also considered. To quantify the initial reaction, I consider the open-to-close price change between 11am and 11:15am. The overall reaction is the difference between the end-of-day settlement price on the report day and the overnight opening price the previous evening. Current soybean futures price sits near $11.78 per bushel, with momentum building on concerns about U.S. crop yields amid delayed planting. Hedge funds have increased long positions, signaling market optimism that prices could break $12 if export numbers exceed projections.
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