Soybean futures chart scans reveal mid-2024 contracts in

Soybean futures chart scans reveal mid-2024 contracts in mild uptrend zones. A balanced outlook hinges on Brazilian crop harvest pace. Moving average convergence suggests controlled upward momentum. The soft commodities posted across-the-board declines, with cocoa futures leading on the downside experiencing a 12.46% price plunge. World sugar, Arabica coffee, cotton, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures declined. However, coffee, cocoa, and OJ prices remain elevated, given explosive price action over the past months. Cotton and sugar have lagged the sector, and prices remained under pressure in September. It can be seen from Figure 3a that in the early stage of the international soybean futures prices shocks, China’s soybean futures prices (dFP) exhibit a significant negative response. In the initial phase of price decline, the magnitude of the negative response is large, indicating that international soybean futures fluctuations exert a short-term disturbance effect on China’s soybean futures market. Over time, this negative impact gradually weakened, and the response curve returned to near zero, indicating that China’s futures market absorbs and adjusts to international market shocks. The negative impact may reflect the excessive short-term sensitivity of China’s soybean futures market to international shocks, implying potential market instability or speculative behavior. These findings further confirm that the international soybean futures price (CBOT) has a significant influence on the Chinese futures price, highlighting the international market as a key external factor for China’s soybean futures market. Meal export volumes to Asia remain strong. Short-term retracement toward $12.15 could be a healthy reset before further highs.