Forecast models for SMH stock suggest sustained growth in memory chips and logic processors through 2025, which could underpin steady dividend increases for ETF holders. After a strong start to 2024, SMH has taken a beating this summer. However, for investors with a long-term time horizon, the semiconductor sector still offers plenty of promise, and SMH is a good way to gain exposure to it. Overall, FTXL is a good ETF with a solid performance track record, but I am less bullish on it due to the fact that it has significantly lagged SMH’s performance over the past three and five years and also has a higher expense ratio. I land on a neutral rating here. Macro conditions influence SMH stock forecast, with stable interest rates and softening inflation supporting capital expenditure in tech, which historically correlates with higher SMH valuations.