Current rut futures open interest indicates cautious optimism—up 4.5% from last week. This could signal increased hedging, but the technical chart leans bullish if support at 2,000 holds. For example, the 20th Century Fox X-Men movies borrowed liberally from these comics: the attack on the X-Men mansion in X2 was inspired by a similar attack in Ultimate X-Men , and Magneto’s attack on Washington, D.C. (complete with reprogrammed Sentinels) in Days of Future Past came from these iconic issues. Eventually, all of this creative momentum led to the Ultimates line more or less paving the way for the wildly successful Marvel Cinematic Universe. With all of the focus on the efficacy and trend of employment data and the distance from and trend away from inflation relative to any real or perceived FOMC target, one data point was somewhat glossed over when it came out earlier in August. This data point was the National Federation of Independent Businesses Optimism Index. Given 99% of businesses are small and these companies employ half of all workers, the state of conditions for small businesses is quite important for the overall economy. The data came in better than expected and extended a trend markets have seen since the lows near Liberation Day. In the top chart, I overlay this data vs. the generic front-month Russell 2000 futures. You can see a pretty good fit with the futures move being coincident, if not leading somewhat. The move in the Russell 2000 in the last week may indicate a further move higher in sentiment. Conversely, one might say that the futures have moved too far relative to the data. However, the bottom chart suggests otherwise. The bottom chart shows the relative performance of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 compared to this same sentiment data. In this analysis, one may surmise that the relative move in small-cap companies vs. their larger peers may only be starting. With the potential for allocation into small caps and out of large caps, or at least seeing new money coming into the market potentially preferring small caps, perhaps the move in Russell 2000 futures is only in its early stages. Small-cap energy and industrials are underpinning rut futures strength, lifting the contract despite broader market uncertainty. The setup favors a grind higher if risk appetite persists.