Rut futures seasonal trends suggest rut futures

Seasonal trends suggest rut futures tend to outperform in Q4, as fund managers rotate into small-cap names ahead of year-end benchmarks. There’s no doubt that the Ultimates line of comics influenced the MCU , right down to having Tony Stark mentor a teenage Spider-Man. But what does all of this have to do with Marvel being stuck in a creative rut? Eventually, the Ultimates line became a bloated mess straining under the weight of its own tangled continuity, and after one of the worst comics ever made (the less said about Ultimatum , the better), this continuity was later mercy-killed in 2015. With all of the focus on the efficacy and trend of employment data and the distance from and trend away from inflation relative to any real or perceived FOMC target, one data point was somewhat glossed over when it came out earlier in August. This data point was the National Federation of Independent Businesses Optimism Index. Given 99% of businesses are small and these companies employ half of all workers, the state of conditions for small businesses is quite important for the overall economy. The data came in better than expected and extended a trend markets have seen since the lows near Liberation Day. In the top chart, I overlay this data vs. the generic front-month Russell 2000 futures. You can see a pretty good fit with the futures move being coincident, if not leading somewhat. The move in the Russell 2000 in the last week may indicate a further move higher in sentiment. Conversely, one might say that the futures have moved too far relative to the data. However, the bottom chart suggests otherwise. The bottom chart shows the relative performance of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 compared to this same sentiment data. In this analysis, one may surmise that the relative move in small-cap companies vs. their larger peers may only be starting. With the potential for allocation into small caps and out of large caps, or at least seeing new money coming into the market potentially preferring small caps, perhaps the move in Russell 2000 futures is only in its early stages. Traders watching rut futures note a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar this month—dollar weakness is amplifying gains in small-cap export-oriented firms.