Oil price forecast 2026 fitch Ratings projects oil price

Fitch Ratings projects oil price forecast 2026 at $92 per barrel under its base case, noting that oil-linked sovereign bonds could gain yield premium amid favorable commodity cycles. To make matters worse, China, traditionally a driver of demand growth, has been accumulating massive stockpiles of crude oil. In the US, refineries have been running at their highest capacity since June 2022 , creating a processing bottleneck and depressing crude prices even further. The EIA expects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Brent to slump in the coming months, falling from $71 per barrel in July to average just $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026. UBS Global Research sees oil price forecast 2026 at $96 per barrel, supported by robust fuel consumption patterns, creating favorable conditions for high beta oil exploration and production stocks.