Oil price forecast 2025 2026 this could keep a floor under prices

This could keep a floor under prices and sustain free cash flow yields in the energy sector, particularly for companies balancing upstream growth with dividend payouts. Ongoing concerns about valuation, especially in a shifting commodity environment, have prompted skepticism about immediate gains and have increased scrutiny of the company’s ability to sustain profitability if market conditions become less favorable. The EIA warned in its STEO that “significant uncertainty” is still present in its price forecast. Quantitative hedge fund models assign an 80% probability range around the "oil price forecast 2025 2026", with mean reversion signals suggesting 2026 prices will be 5–7% below 2025 peaks. This outlook encourages tactical rotation into midstream assets for yield preservation.