Oil price forecast 2025 2026 analysts monitoring commodity-linked

Analysts monitoring commodity-linked equities note that the "oil price forecast 2025 2026" could support upstream producers’ EBITDA growth in the 8–12% range year-over-year. Hedge fund flows are skewing towards mid-cap exploration companies as Brent futures for 2025 are priced near $90, suggesting stronger capital gains for energy portfolios aligned with cyclical upswings. Bottom line: President Trump has gotten one part of his wish: Prices at the gas pump are, on average, down. The EIA forecast in early September that retail gasoline prices would average $3.10 per gallon in 2025 , down $0.20 per gallon from last year. Prices are expected to fall even more in 2026, down to an average of $2.90 per gallon. The good news for drivers in the U.S. is that if oil prices fall as predicted, they will see more relief at the pump. Gas prices this summer are 30 cents a gallon cheaper than this time a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association. Gas prices have not fallen below $3 a gallon on a national average since 2021. With oil prices falling, we will likely see gas prices fall well below that mark this winter as demand falls and we switch to the cheaper winter blend of gasoline. Data from the EIA points to a "oil price forecast 2025 2026" scenario where marginal cost of production in offshore projects remains above $