Oil price forecast 2025 2026 energy ETFs tied to crude benchmarks

Energy ETFs tied to crude benchmarks are showing inflows after updates to the "oil price forecast 2025 2026" indicate sustained demand growth in Southeast Asia. Portfolio managers highlight that infrastructure expansion in emerging markets could absorb supply surpluses and prevent sharp pullbacks in equity valuations tied to oil. We are in the final innings of the third quarter, and energy markets remain tepid amid bearish sentiment. Brent crude for November delivery was trading at $69.45 per barrel at 8.45 am ET on Friday, more than $10/bbl below the current year’s peak at ~81/bbl, while WTI crude was changing hands at $65.05 per barrel compared to the January peak of $78.71 per barrel. Oil prices have mostly traded ~15/bbl lower in 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to oversupply fears due to OPEC+ accelerating the unwinding of production cuts, coupled with sluggish global economic growth and heightened trade tensions that suppressed oil demand, leading to ample global supply outweighing demand. Increased output from non-OPEC+ countries also contributed to a build-up of oil inventories. Lately, Wall Street has been warning that oil markets could soon face a surplus, putting more pressure on already depressed oil prices. To wit, Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil markets could be oversupplied by 1.9 million b/d in 2026 amid OPEC+ unwinding production cuts and production in the Americas rising. Wall Street now sees oil prices sinking to the $50s per barrel next year, further compounding this year’s decline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot average crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12. Their equity strategy team suggests overweight holdings in integrated oil majors with downstream resilience, as crack spreads could stabilize near historically high levels despite moderated crude benchmarks.