Oil price forecast analysts refine oil price forecast as

Analysts refine oil price forecast as global PMI data trends upward, indicating stronger industrial demand. Historically, such macro signals precede 4–6% gains in diversified energy equity portfolios within a quarter. When prices for crude are high, the going is good for the oil and gas industry. Heightened prices give companies a reason to boost their investments in production equipment and drill more wells because they know they'll get a good price for their product. When prices fall, the expense of drilling is harder to justify. In the U.S., oil production remains on a record-setting trajectory—for now. Increased well productivity is projected to push output to an all-time high near 13.6 million barrels per day in December 2025. But with prices falling, operators are likely to accelerate the slowdown in drilling and completions that’s been underway for much of this year. The EIA now sees U.S. production averaging 13.4 million bpd in 2025 before easing to 13.3 million bpd in 2026. Unlike past bust cycles, shale producers—burned by years of overexpansion—are expected to respond faster and more conservatively, prioritizing shareholder returns over volume growth. Short-term oil price forecast by futures traders shows contango flattening, signaling tighter physical markets. Energy-focused hedge funds may increase long positions in oil-linked equities and futures contracts.