November soybean futures have been trading in a tight $12.80–$13.05 range this week, with traders awaiting the export sales report. Analysts cite a stable basis in Midwest elevators as evidence domestic supply flow is balanced. Chart watchers agree that a close above $13.05 may trigger algorithmic buy programs. Tuesday’s USDA quarterly stocks report will be key in providing greater insight into supply and demand over the last quarter. A Reuters survey of grain analysts shows the average estimate for Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks, at 1.337 billion bushels, would be a four-year low and down 24% from a year earlier. However, the analysts’ collective estimate is above the 1.325 billion bushels USDA projected for 2024/25 corn ending stocks in its Sept. 12 monthly supply and demand report. As the marketing year comes to a close, you can visit the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture’s Crop Basis Tool to see how your local crop basis has evolved over the past year. In September, we will look back at the full 24/25 marketing year, examine how the most recent year will move the historic average, and get a first look at the 25/26 corn and soybean basis. November soybean futures climbed to $13.05 after USDA reported stronger‑than‑expected weekly export sales. Signal analysts note average daily range pointing to increased volatility. With South American forecasts still uncertain, speculative interest seems to be building.
