Futures on the Nasdaq100 posted a 0.27% uptick to 18,210 ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, with market-implied probabilities showing a 62% chance of a September rate cut. Many traders are hedging through QQQ options to capture potential upside volatility. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that new data from his staff indicates the labor market remains stable. “I think it indicates some steadiness in the labor market, and I think the underlying economy is still growing pretty solidly,” Goolsbee said. He reiterated that rates could be lowered “a fair amount” if policymakers gain confidence that inflation is moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she will approach further rate cuts with caution as inflation risks continue to outweigh the threat of higher unemployment. “My forecast has a little bit slower of a normalization of the policy path in order to make sure we get all the way to 2%. So it will take some time,” Logan said. S&P 500 futures (/ESU5) gave up earlier gains that came after U.S. retail sales data this morning that showed strong consumption for the month of July. Intel (INTC) rose over 4% on a report that the U.S. government is considering taking a stake in the company. That didn’t help the broader semiconductor space, however, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) falling more than 2% in early trading. UnitedHealth rose 10% after news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the company. Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 13% following a disappointing earnings report. Market participants are closely watching Nasdaq100 futures as they attempt to breach all-time highs, with current positioning data showing net long exposure from asset managers at multi-month peaks.
