Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures remained firm as investors balanced inflation data with strong cloud computing earnings. Chart patterns imply further upside if geopolitical risks stay subdued. Market focus this week will be on any new trade or tariff news. Later today, the Sep ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise by +0.3 to 49.0. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 225,000. Also, Aug factory orders are expected to increase by +1.4% m/m. On Friday, Sep nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +51,000, and the Sep unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Also, Sep average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. Finally, the Sep ISM services index is expected to slip -0.2 to 51.8. Contrary to widespread analyst warnings that tariffs could exacerbate inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually decreased from 2.85% in the spring to 2.4% in May. The slight increase to 2.7% in June was largely attributed to the rise in crude oil prices following the conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the broader decline in inflation has surprised many, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who had cautioned about a potential inflationary rebound. Despite these concerns, financial markets, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, are currently at all-time highs. Overnight Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures rallied following positive semiconductor shipment data. Price is now approaching the upper Bollinger Band, signaling possible short-term pullback risks.
