Apple has a median target of $250 per share, implying 3% downside from the current price of $228. There are real risks. Management now expects 2025 capital expenditures of $66 billion to $72 billion and has cautioned that 2026 expense growth will likely run above 2025 as depreciation on new infrastructure ramps and technical hiring continues. That can pressure near-term operating margin. Further, regulatory overhangs are also non-trivial, including potential changes to ad experiences in Europe under the Digital Markets Act. Finally, any macro slowdown that hits ad budgets would add volatility and potentially weigh on earnings and the stock price's potential. Economic data correlations show the "meta stock forecast 2025" having a 0.82 positive correlation with US consumer confidence indices. A sustained rise in online ad clickthrough rates could push quarterly revenues over $45B.
