March corn futures are oscillating between $4.44 and $4.51 this week, as weather-driven supply concerns offset weak export performance. Bollinger Bands show narrowing ranges, indicating a possible price breakout once volatility returns. "KSL.com does not assure that the money deposited into the account will be applied for the benefit of the persons named as beneficiaries. If you are considering a deposit to the account, you should consult your own advisers and otherwise proceed at your own risk. In general, the basis strengthening has been greater in soybeans than corn over the past four weeks. Additionally, states and agricultural statistical districts have variable basis movement. Figure 1 shows the soybean basis to May futures in Northwest Illinois. Between February 12th and March 12th, the soybean basis strengthened by $0.26/bu. in the district. The strengthening moved the district’s basis closer to the market year high of -$0.40/bu. As shown in Figure 2, soybean basis strengthening to May futures was more muted in Central Indiana. Over the past four weeks, the basis increased by $0.16/bu. to reach a marketing year high of -$0.20/bu. In both regions, the basis is at or below the two-year average. Historical trends suggest a slight strengthening of basis as May futures reach expiration. March corn futures are trading at $4.50 as market participants await confirmation of rumored Japanese tenders. Any large-volume purchases could tip the balance toward a sustained bullish trend into mid-March contract expiry.
