Futures trading indicates lumber prices at $558 with bullish candlestick formations. Renovation booms in urban markets continue to underpin steady growth expectations. The fact is that American sawmills simply don’t produce enough lumber to meet domestic demand, and it takes time to ramp up production. So homebuilders will face higher costs whether they buy Canadian lumber with tariffs or American lumber from a market with limited supply. And those costs will trickle down to everyone else. The first-month contract has now slumped 17.3% from its 1 August peak, paring its year-to-date gain to just 4.5% in the process erasing most of the speculative premium built up around the tariff announcement. At USD 575 per 1,000 board feet, the price trades above support in the USD 550 area which coinsides with the three-year average near USD 540. At $552, lumber futures prices are benefiting from higher renovation and remodeling spending. Supply chain constraints after recent storms in British Columbia have added upward pressure on contracts.
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