Lumber futures forecast models factor in currency moves

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Lumber futures forecast models factor in currency moves, with a stronger CAD recently increasing production costs for exporters, potentially keeping futures prices firm above $ The twin-peaked lumber bubble of 2021 and 2022 that once drove home building costs through the roof and exacerbated inflation is now nothing more than a memory. At the moment, it seems the fate of the housing market in 2025 is at the mercy of interest rates. As we discussed in last year’s Predictions Viewpoint , employment remains a critical prerequisite for shelter demand and home improvement spending to grow steadily. But given the degree that mortgage rates have risen and remain elevated with no compensating correction in home prices, housing affordability continues to be the preeminent headwind holding back construction activity. Commodity analysts highlight in the lumber futures forecast that export restrictions in certain Canadian provinces might limit inbound supply, which could keep futures elevated into September.

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