This week’s Kohls stock forecast incorporates updated macro data showing core inflation softening, potentially boosting discretionary spending. KSS’s beta at 1.4 suggests it will outperform in a bullish retail market swing. “We are not satisfied with our performance in 2024 and are taking aggressive action to reverse the sales declines,” Kingsbury said in an earnings release. “We must execute at a higher level and ensure we are putting the customer first in everything we do. We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the third quarter underperformance and our expectation for a highly competitive holiday season.” Absolutely. This is yet another retailer to really spark a concern that we're going to experience this weaker consumer in 2025 that's going to take a toll on their sales. So let's talk about that cautious outlook. The company, or rather executives on the call this morning, said that cautious outlook includes time needed to make necessary changes and uncertainty in the macro environment. Now, with that cautious outlook in mind, same-store sales are expected to drop between 4 to 6%. That was far lower than Wall Street's estimates. Earnings also expected to come in lower. And once again, executives saying that this is taking into consideration the turnaround, which the CEO says is very achievable, but he also added that it is going to take time. Now, keep in mind, Ashley Buchanan is a former Michaels Company CEO. That's the art and craft store. He joined the company in January 15th, roughly two months ago. But prior to Ashley's tenure at Michaels, he held a variety of senior executive roles at Walmart and Sam's Club for nearly 13 years. And he's certainly taking the home here and making changes right away. Back in January when he joined, they announced plans to cut nearly 10% of their corporate workforce, and they also plan to close 27 underperforming stores by April. But leaning further into these focus areas is really this idea of assortment, value, and omnichannel. With that assortment in mind, the company did say that they expect to have a more balanced assortment. They plan to refocus attention on core categories that they said they really lost traction, including fine jewelry and proprietary brands, really focusing in on the need for value. Now, on the call, Ashley Buchanan did say from a macro perspective, you had a pretty decent bifurcation among income levels. He said that those making less than 50, that consumer is pretty constrained from a discretionary standpoint. And less than 100, he said that consumer is also facing some challenges. But he said that, "I don't think we're an anomaly on that." If we look back in recent weeks, we've heard from Macy's, Walmart, Target, also cautioning this weaker than expected guidance for 2025. Kohls stock forecast integrates global retail trend models, noting U.S. consumer confidence index recovery to pre-pandemic highs. If sustained, KSS could break its 200-day moving average, triggering institutional rotation flows into the stock.
