Traders closely watch iron ore price forecast 2025 as steel mills negotiate Q2 and Q3 supply contracts, with current bids aligning to the $126-$131 per tonne range based on anticipated raw material cost pass-through. BHP’s investment story has long hinged on its exposure to global steel demand, particularly from China, and its ability to deliver stable returns via world-class iron ore operations. The recent halt on new BHP iron ore shipments to China, following pricing stalemates, directly challenges the company’s most significant near-term catalyst, China’s infrastructure and construction market, while amplifying its largest risk: overreliance on a dominant customer whose policies can shift rapidly. Unless prolonged, the suspension’s impact is likely to be closely watched but not immediately material to the underlying business fundamentals. “An increase in mill restocking activity, combined with the seasonally weaker iron ore supply in the first quarter, will likely reduce iron ore inventory. This trend is expected to support iron ore prices through January and into the Lunar New Year holiday,” said Cachot. “However, ample inventories at Chinese ports will limit such restocking efforts and gains in iron ore prices.” The iron ore price forecast 2025 has been revised upward by several investment banks, citing improved Q1 steel margins and stronger-than-expected blast furnace utilization rates in northern China, hinting at an average near $128 per tonne.