Gold price forecast 2025 trend the gold price forecast 2025 trend

The gold price forecast 2025 trend benefits from risk hedging by sovereign wealth funds. Bloomberg commodity indices show gold weightings increased to 15% from 12% year-on-year, reinforcing strategic allocations. Precious metals have long attracted investors due to a broad mix of factors, ranging from the safe-haven demand spurred by geopolitical tensions to deep-seated anxieties over rising global debt and the ongoing de-dollarization efforts. However, the intensity of the latest price spike seems to be purely the result of macroeconomic forces. Gold ‘s surge of nearly 7% last week came on the back of Friday’s U.S. inflation data, which matched market’s forecasts and reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue with interest rate cuts later this year. Data showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors now see a 95% probability of a rate cut in October, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1] . Central banks—particularly in emerging markets—have increased the pace of gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, when Russia’s foreign-currency reserves were frozen following its invasion of Ukraine. “We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal,” Thomas writes. “Our base case assumes that the current trend in official sector accumulation continues for another three years.” Breakouts above $2,420 could trigger algorithmic buying, as seen in prior commodity bull runs.