Gdx futures gold market strength continues to drive
Gold market strength continues to drive GDX futures higher, with current contracts at $30. But today realize Q3’s record gold levels have been set in stone, they can’t be revised lower like Biden Administration jobs reports. So the only variable driving sector unit profitability is the GDX top 25’s average all-in sustaining costs. Over the past four quarters they have been trending lower on balance , clocking in at $1,304, $1,317, $1,277, and $1,239 per ounce. That averages $1,284, a conservative baseline. GDX’s mounting bull run over the last couple years or so has come in two distinct phases. The initial uptrend from early October 2023 to late December 2024 had a fairly-modest upslope. Yet the major gold stocks still collectively soared 70.2% in 12.6 months , achieving a 4.2-year secular high in late October 2024. They weren’t even extremely-overbought then, a threshold currently starting at 1.30x GDX’s 200dma. GDX futures are showing resilience against broader equity market pullbacks. Traders note the correlation with gold remains high, meaning continued metal strength is likely to translate into futures gains. Short-term support sits firmly at $29.90.
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