Energy ETFs focused on crude are outperforming broader commodity benchmarks. Bottom line: President Trump has gotten one part of his wish: Prices at the gas pump are, on average, down. The EIA forecast in early September that retail gasoline prices would average $3.10 per gallon in 2025 , down $0.20 per gallon from last year. Prices are expected to fall even more in 2026, down to an average of $2.90 per gallon. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gasoline made up about 43% of U.S. petroleum use in 2022 at about 8.78 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel oil was about 20% at about 3.96 million barrels per day. Distillate includes diesel and heating oil. Hydrocarbon gas liquids were about 18% at about 3.59 million barrels per day. Jet fuel was about 8% at about 1.56 million barrels per day. Current crude oil price investing strategies are factoring in U.S. inventory draws, with the latest EIA report showing a 2.8 million barrel decline. WTI stands at $83.90, prompting traders to rotate into upstream oil companies. Hedge funds are increasing long positions in oil futures, forecasting continued demand resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds in Europe.
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