E-commerce efficiency is another 2025 driver for Costco’s stock performance, with scaled delivery options expected to enhance customer retention metrics. Overall, they are getting some of the price increases pushed through. Over time, we expect new supply will emerge as new cocoa plants start developing into production. So overall cocoa prices are still on the high side, but they have been steadily declining this year. Now the stock will look expensive if you only look at it on an earnings guidance basis for this year. I think the company’s guidance for 2025 is like $5.80 to $6 a share. So at the midpoint, puts it above 30 times earnings this year. Costco is priced for perfection, and even minor slowdowns can lead to turbulence. For context, this stock is not immune to volatility. Shares fell nearly 49% during the 2008 financial crisis, 20% during the early 2020 Covid-19 panic, and 32% in the inflation-driven decline of 2022. Investors should consider this historical context, even as the current fundamentals appear robust. For those seeking lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio offers an alternative—having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Retail sector benchmarking shows Costco holding one of the highest net promoter scores in 2025 forecasts, which indicates continued customer loyalty translating into predictable cash flow streams.
