Coffee futures price climbed to $2.32/lb in early June trading, driven by tighter Brazilian supply and rising global demand. Analysts note the current price tests the 50-day moving average resistance, suggesting possible short-term volatility if rainfall patterns improve in key growing regions. That event also made the switch from tea to coffee something of a patriotic duty. In 1774, in a letter John Adams wrote to his wife, Abigail, Adams reported that he had been denied tea by his hostess. "Accordingly I have drank coffee every afternoon since, and have borne it very well," Adams wrote. "Tea must be universally renounced. I must be weaned, and the sooner, the better." We expect a substantial balance between supply and demand in 2025/26, said in an interview with Notícias Agrícolas, Fernando Maximiliano, a coffee analyst at StoneX, with a slightly positive balance of around 400,000 bags, despite the decline in Brazilian production. This is thanks to expected increases in Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where production is expected to grow by 7%. At the same time, consumption is falling in some countries, starting with Brazil and the US Seasonal patterns suggest coffee futures price often strengthen in June-July on weather concerns. Current models from meteorological agencies show above-average temperatures, adding risk premium into contracts.
