Chipotle stock forecast 2025 based on sector rotation trends

Based on sector rotation trends, the Chipotle stock forecast 2025 shows potential outperformance compared to other fast-casual peers, thanks to its well-managed food inflation controls and loyal customer base. CMG’s valuation remains high but justified in analyst models. The letter, which covered the second quarter of 2025, noted that Chipotle's performance fell short of its long-term potential. This was attributed to an uncertain consumer landscape where value-focused customers are trading down to cheaper fast-food options. In July 2025, Chipotle's management cut its full-year 2025 guidance for the second time, lowering expectations for comparable sales growth to flat from a prior low-single-digit forecast. This followed a business slowdown in May and June. The negative sentiment is echoed by recent market performance, as the stock hit a 52-week low on September 5, pressured by weakening consumer confidence and rising competition. Chipotle's net sales rose 3% to $3.06 billion, thanks to its new restaurants. But the company's same-store sales shrank 4%, steeper than last quarter's decline of 0.4% and StreetAccount estimates of a 2.9% decrease for the second quarter. Average check increased roughly 1%, partially offsetting traffic declines of 4.9%. Market watchers suggest Chipotle stock forecast 2025 could benefit from its aggressive expansion plan, with over 300 new locations expected. This geographic diversification strategy positions CMG to capture suburban and urban demand amid strong U.S. consumer spending trends.