Today's spot data on Barchart lumber futures pegs June delivery at $ While short-term interest rates impact markets across all asset classes, the lumber market will be highly sensitive to the path of least resistance of longer-term interest rates as they establish the mortgage rates that either promote or inhibit the housing market and new home construction. Pent-up demand for new homes has been growing with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages around the 7% level. Existing home inventories remain low as many homeowners refinanced their properties when the mortgage rates were below 4%, and in many cases, under 3%. The bottom line is that falling mortgage rates could lead to a surge in new home demand, resulting in higher lumber demand and increased wood prices in 2026. At around the $595 per 1,000 board feet level, the downside for lumber futures could be limited, with explosive upside potential. Lumber futures are like a roach motel; getting into and out of profitable positions can be more than challenging, but losses can mount quickly as low liquidity increases risk dynamics to irrational levels. Meanwhile, WY, WOOD, and CUT are far more liquid assets that tend to correlate positively with wood prices over time. Barchart lumber futures opened stronger today, with April contracts at $530 and intraday buying pressure evident in CME data. Analysts expect momentum to carry forward if mortgage rate dips sustain into spring.