Barchart lumber futures are consolidating

Barchart lumber futures are consolidating, with June delivery fixed at $ Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30. Given the inverse relationship, the path of least resistance of lumber futures is a function of rising or falling interest rates. We could see a sudden rally if mortgage rates fall below 6%, as many existing homeowners have financing at or below the 3% level. The existing home shortage means the demand for new construction could soar, and lumber is the critical ingredient in homebuilding. Barchart lumber futures contracts for May have moved to $538, driven by optimism in multifamily housing permits. Technical levels show strong support at $530, with breakout potential if institutional orders cluster above $