ASX 200 futures traded sideways ahead of global CPI releases. Macro-sensitive investors are holding positions steady, with futures volume dipping below weekly averages. PolyNovo has demonstrated significant growth, with earnings rising by 151.2% over the past year and revenue reaching A$129.19 million. Insiders have been actively purchasing shares, indicating confidence in future prospects. Despite being dropped from the S&P/ASX 200 Index, forecasts suggest revenue will grow at 14.6% annually, outpacing the Australian market's average of 5.6%. Earnings are expected to increase by 27% annually, supported by a high forecasted Return on Equity of 22.9%. Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, September 30. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better. ASX 200 higher, off best levels [2:45 pm] ASX 200 trading around breakeven, pulling back from session highs of 0.33%. Market showing offsetting sector performances with Materials (+1.1%) and Discretionary (+0.30%) strength countered by weakness in Energy (-1.9%), Telcos (-0.8%) and Financials (-0.7%). Though all sectors are trading off intraday highs. Its no doubt a stock pickers market, with plenty of sub-sectors like gold, silver, precious metals, copper, defence and other specs surging. While the rest of the market remains relatively choppy. Index showing some signs of strength but continues to lack follow-through. Over the past couple of weeks, each attempt to build momentum has been met with a whip back into range. That's all for Tuesday. Catch you all tomorrow. RBA holds as expected [2:30 pm] RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% at today's meeting. The decision was unanimous. Some of the key takeaways include: Decline in underlying inflation has slowed, with recent data suggesting September quarter inflation may be higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy, despite both headline and trimmed mean inflation within the 2-3% range in the June quarter Domestic economic activity is recovering but the outlook remains uncertain. Private demand is recovering more rapidly than expected, taking over from public demand as the driver of growth, with private consumption picking up as real household incomes rise and financial conditions ease Housing market is strengthening, indicating recent interest rate decreases are having an effect. Credit remains readily available to both households and businesses Labour market conditions have been broadly steady in recent months and remain a little tight. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% in August despite employment growth slowing slightly more than expected. Measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates Thinking out loud about gold miners [2:09 pm] Just some odd thoughts before we wrap things up. There are 25 ASX-listed gold miners with a market cap of over $1 billion. These stocks have recorded an average gain of 97% in the last twelve months (or ~87% on a market cap weighted basis). These 25 names currently have a combined market cap of $162 billion, which is about three Fortescue's or 3/4 of a BHP. What's incredible is that these stocks have added some ~$70 billion in market cap over the past year. It's fair to say that they're single handily propped up the Materials Index. Gold stocks edge higher [2:01 pm] Gold seems unstoppable right now, with prices up another 0.8% to US$3,865/oz. This follows a 1.97% move on Monday to US$3,832. Gold miners feel a little fatigued given how much they've run up in recent weeks, with plenty of stocks trading slightly higher/lower. Though Capricorn Metals is rallying off the back of JPMorgan. Ticker Company % Chg Price CMM Capricorn Metals 4.12% $13.39 EMR Emerald Resources 2.85% $5.06 RMS Ramelius Resources 2.78% $3.89 RSG Resolute Mining 2.73% $1.02 OBM Ora Banda Mining 2.61% $1.18 NST Northern Star Resources 2.00% $23.92 EVN Evolution Mining 1.91% $10.94 PRU Perseus Mining 1.86% $4.93 WGX Westgold Resources 0.90% $4.49 GMD Genesis Minerals 0.68% $5.89 RRL Regis Resources 0.25% $6.05 GOR Gold Road Resources -0.29% $3.48 CYL Catalyst Metals -0.37% $8.04 VAU Vault Minerals -1.19% $0.66 NEM Newmont -1.88% $129.81 PNR Pantoro Gold -6.39% $6.08 E&P's take on Seven West Media [1:57 pm] This morning, Seven West Media (SWM) announced it entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Southern Cross (SXL), with SXL acquiring all SWM shares for 0.1552 SXL shares per SWM share. Here are some of the key takeaways from E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski. At SXL's latest trading price of $0.84/share, this implies an offer price of $0.13/share, representing a slight discount to SWM's last close of $0.14/share Transaction likely to be significantly accretive to SXL shareholders with the company pointing to more than 100% EPS accretion, consistent with preliminary analysis Even without any synergies, SXL's EPS would see pro-forma accretion of 88% in FY26 and 67% in FY27, driven by the much lower multiple being paid to acquire SWM (less than 4x FY26 PE versus SXL PE multiple of more than 8x) While unusual to see a deal agreed at a discount to current trading levels, SWM could benefit from any upside in SXL share price and increased liquidity assuming the deal completes Veem hits 12-month high [1:49 pm] Missed this update/move this morning. Veem has ripped 21% higher despite raising $14 million at a 13.6% discount to its last closing price. This was a rather bullish raise as the proceeds will be applied towards growth in the defence sector, working capital and balance sheet strength. The raise was announced in parallel with a US$33 million, 9-year defence contact with Northrop Grumman, a global aerospace, defence and security company. Veem noted the placement received strong support from the Miocevich family, major shareholder Perennial and other institutional investors. Veem is one of the under-the-radar defence stocks, as names like DroneShield and Electro Optic Systems often dominate the sector. Energy stocks broadly lower [12:12 pm] Key energy names like Beach, Santos and Woodside are all down around 2% after the oil price move overnight. Ticker Company % Chg Price BPT Beach Energy -2.36% $1.16 WDS Woodside Energy -2.26% $22.89 STO Santos -2.10% $6.76 AGL Agl Energy -0.73% $8.85 ORG Origin Energy -0.56% $12.50 China's mixed PMIs [12:09 pm] China's non-manufacturing activity slowed in September as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which includes services and construction, dropped to 50.0 from 50.3 in August according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Australian building permits dip [12:07 pm] The total number of dwellings approved fell 6.0% in August to 14,744, according to the ABS. This falls well short of market expectations of a 3% increase. Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics, said: 'The drop in total dwellings was driven by an 8.1 per cent fall in private dwellings excluding houses, following a 25.8 per cent fall in July.’ Source: ABS The quiet resource rally [10:39 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is up 1.7% so far this week, trading at its highest level since January 2024 on the weekly chart.The iron ore majors have traded relatively flat year-to-date, suggesting most of the index's strength comes from smaller constituents in gold, copper and rare earths. The Materials Index is unlikely to stage a major breakout without support from iron ore miners or further vertical gains in other commodities. But it's interesting to see the index relying more heavily on diversified commodity exposure. S&P/ASX 200 Materials weekly chart (Source: TradingView) ASX 200 slightly higher, Materials rally [10:27 am] ASX 200 up 0.13% in early trade, up for a fourth straight session. It's a bit of an 'opposite day' , with yesterday's winners like Financials, Utilities and Telcos are trading flat to lower, while Materials, which closed around breakeven on Monday, has jumped 1.4% to its highest level since May 2024. ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index) Citi trims oil price outlook, but inventory builds provide support [9:51 am] Citi's Global Commodity team forecasts crude oil to bottom around US$60-62/bbl into 2026 as OPEC+ continues to unwind cuts and non-OPEC supply growth accelerates. Despite loosening fundamentals, Citi remains less negative than consensus due to China's continued stockpiling and a response from observable OECD inventories. Here are some of the key takeaways from the report: Key risks to oil outlook are skewed around geopolitics, with Russia/Ukraine de-escalation potentially accelerating downside, while sanctions or Middle East disruptions post-JCPOA expiry present upside risk Citi lowers its CY26 oil outlook by approximately 5% from US$65/bbl to US$62/bbl, reflecting OPEC+ unwinding the next tier of 1.6mbpd of voluntary cuts and strong non-OPEC supply growth Santos (STO) and Karoon Energy (KAR) remain Citi's top picks across E&P coverage. STO controlling the controllables well as it emerges from heavy capex cycle with improved visibility to high FCF generation KAR identified as top value play discounting US$51/bbl oil with rich catalyst outlook through to 2026. STO and Woodside (WDS) discount approximately US$60/bbl, broadly in-line with Citi's long-term oil price Morgan Stanley's take on rare earths [9:48 am] Ex-China availability for heavy rare earths remains challenged, with European price assessments for Dy (Dysprosium) and Tb (Terbium) oxides continuing to run at significant premiums of over 300% compared to domestic China material, according to Morgan Stanley. Despite China agreeing to grant export licenses for US and European companies in late May, only 19 out of 141 European Chamber of Commerce member companies (approximately 13.5%) have received approvals from China's Ministry of Commerce as of September 9. The market faces potential bifurcation of pricing due to China's rare earth supply chain dominance, with limited western supply as demand from EVs, humanoids, and defence applications scales significantly. Morgan Stanley views on local rare earth names include: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) rated Overweight as the largest ex-China NdPr producer currently, having recently raised approximately $900m to deploy into growth and downstream expansion. Iluka Resources (ILU) also rated Overweight, with Eneabba project expected in CY27 and producing both light and heavy separated rare earth oxides. The Star strikes deal with lenders for covenant relief [9:43 am] Star Entertainment is on the verge of resolving debt covenant impasse with lenders after a month of negotiations, according to the AFR. Lenders are set to grant Star another six months of relief from covenants in return for a fee. Star owes lenders $430 million and has consistently been in breach of loan terms including leverage ratios and interest coverage tests. Lenders expected to waive the June 30 covenant test and the upcoming September-quarter test, giving Star until February to reduce debt. Source: AFR 29Metals hit by seismic event [9:31 am] 29Metals reports further seismic event within the Xantho Extended orebody at Golden Grove mine site in Western Australia. The time required to reinstate ground support to impacted Xantho Extended production levels is currently being assessed. Though access to high-grade zinc ore previously planned for the December quarter is now uncertain. Full year guidance for zinc production withdrawn due to the seismic event. Alternate ore sources with lower zinc grades will be mined whilst access to Xantho Extended remains restricted. Production guidance for all other metals including copper, gold and silver is maintained despite the seismic event. Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: 29Metals (29M) Southern Cross Media to merge with Seven West Media [9:26 am] Southern Cross Media Group (SXL) enters into Scheme Implementation Deed with Seven West Media (SWM) for proposed all-scrip merger. The key transaction details include: SWM shareholders will receive 0.1552 SXL shares for every SWM share, resulting in SXL shareholders owning 50.1% and SWM shareholders owning 49.9% of the combined group. Management anticipates between $25-30 million in annual pre-tax cost synergies, with incremental revenue synergies also expected to be created Transaction expected to be more than 100% EPS accretive to SXL shareholders SGH Limited, which holds a 40.2% stake in SXL, has indicated it intends to vote in favour of the Proposed Merger Leadership structure agreed with Jeff Howard as Managing Director and CEO of the combined group and John Kelly assuming role of Group Managing Director, Audio Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Southern Cross Media (SXL) Wia Gold scoping study outcomes [9:21 am] Wia announced the completion of a scoping study for its 2.93Moz Kokseb Gold Project in Namibia. The key takeaways include: Production Target of 58.9 Mt from long life open pit operation spanning ~11 years Strong production profile with years 1-5 averaging 177koz per annum at AISC of US$1,265/oz LOM average of 146koz per annum at AISC of US$1,447/oz Attractive financial metrics with post-tax NPV (5%) of US$646m and IRR of 38% at conservative Study gold price assumption of US$2,600/oz Significant upside potential as post-tax NPV(5%) increases to US$1,269m and IRR of 60% at gold price of US$3,450/oz, which is below current spot price of approximately US$3,750/oz Pre-production capital costs of US$358.8m (inclusive of direct and owner costs) with rapid post-tax payback of 1.8 years at US$2,600/oz, and 1.25 years at US$3,450/oz gold price Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Wia Gold (WIA) Alcoa to permanently close Kwinana refinery [9:18 am] Alcoa will record restructuring and related charges of approximately US$890 million (approx $2.41 per share) in the third quarter of 2025 related to the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery, including roughly US$375 million of non-cash asset impairment charges. Cash outlays for the permanent closure expected to approximate $600 million over the next six years, including existing asset retirement obligations and employee related liabilities. Permanently closing Kwinana's 2.2 million metric tons of annual capacity will reduce Alcoa's global consolidated refining capacity to 11.7 million metric tons. This announcement was marked as non-price sensitive. Company page: Alcoa (AAI) Remember Beyond Meat? [9:08 am] During the 2019-20 IPO frenzy, Beyond Meat trade as high as $239. The stock traded as low as $1.23 overnight after he company announced plans to up to 326.2 million new shares to restructure debt and avoid bankruptcy. The stock plunged more than 30% on the news and now down more than 99% from record highs. Busy day of Fedspeak, slightly hawkish takeaways [9:05 am] Several Fed policymakers spoke at various forums and interviews overnight, most expressed concerns about cutting rates too quickly while inflation remains above target. The key highlights include: New York Fed's Williams said some upside inflation risks have ebbed and it made sense to cut rates at September meeting. However, estimated a real neutral rate of 0.75% and noted the Fed still has a ways to go to reach the 2% inflation target St. Louis Fed's Musalem characterised current policy as between modestly restrictive and neutral. Remains open minded about future potential cuts but stresseded the Fed must be cautious, arguing there is little room before policy becomes too loose Cleveland Fed's Hammack told CNBC she continues to worry about inflation and believes the Fed needs to maintain restrictive stance to get inflation back down to target. Said it's a challenging time for monetary policy when asked whether cutting rates is a mistake Another tariff attack [9:01 am] Trump reiterated his call for furniture tariffs overnight, saying he would impose "substantial tariffs" on any country not making its furniture in the US with details to follow. This follows Friday's announcement of 30% tariff on upholstered furniture and cabinets, as well as 100% on certain patented drugs and 25% on heavy trucks. Trump also called for 100% tariffs on foreign-made films as trade tensions continue to escalate. US-China trade tensions back in the spotlight [8:58 am] US-China relations back in focus after China's Ministry of Commerce strongly condemned US export-control measures, calling on the Trump administration to halt "unreasonable oppression of Chinese firms". The comprehensive US-China trade deal remains unresolved as negotiations have repeatedly seen deadline extensions, with the current trade truce running through November 10. Reports have also shown President Xi asking the Trump administration to officially declare it "opposes" Taiwanese independence, representing stronger language than Biden administration's previous statement that it "does not support" independence. Newmont CEO to retire [8:55 am] Newmont CEO Tom Palmer announced his plans to retire as of 31 December 2025, with President and Chief Operating Office Natascha Viljoen appointed as successor. Interestingly, Palmer was only the 10th CEO in Newmont's 104-year history, serving the company for over a decade. Viljoen joined Newmont in 2023 as EVP and COO. Prior to joining Newmont, she served as the CEO of Anglo American Platinum (now Valterra), the world’s largest primary producer of platinum. Not is all bearish for oil [8:53 am] Despite another likely OPEC+ production hike, not all is bad for oil. Actual OPEC+ production increases likely to average only 60-70K bpd per month due to compensation cuts and capacity constraints OPEC+ production falling short of targets between April and August, with the group delivering only ~75% of planned hikes, leaving output roughly 500K bpd below target and defying bearish fears of a looming supply glut Ukraine's drone campaign has temporarily disabled around a quarter of Russia's refining capacity, helping WTI post its best week since June on Friday China continues stockpiling above domestic needs as the country has been importing nearly 1m bpd above requirements since March, with available storage capacity suggesting stockpiling could continue Oil market positioned for potential upside as WTI net long positions near record lows, meaning any supply disruption or demand surprise could trigger short covering and price increases, according to Reuters Oil prices slump on likely OPEC+ output hike [8:49 am] Oil prices dipped around 3% overnight as OPEC+ is expected to approve another oil production increase of at least 137K bpd at the October 5 meeting, following similar increase in early September. Energy was the worst performing sector on the S&P 500, down 1.91% vs. all sectors up 0.26%. This could place some downward pressure on local names like Woodside, Beach Energy and Karoon Energy on Tuesday. WTI crude daily chart (Source: TradingView) Analysts reiterate bullish stance on stocks [8:47 am] Plenty of analysts lifted target prices for the S&P 500 despite valuation concerns. Notable changes include: Goldman Sachs raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,800, citing resilient US economy, dovish Fed pivot, strong earnings growth, and global fiscal policy easing. However, warns equity valuations can overshoot with potential headwinds from growth or rate shocks BofA strategists updated their 12-month target to 7,00), driven by EPS Surprise model shifting to positive from neutral and improved three-month guidance ratio. Cautions S&P 500 is expensive on 19 of 20 valuation metrics, though improved earnings visibility offsets some risk RBC Capital Markets highlights near-term pullback risks into year-end including elevated valuations, anxiety around megacap growth trade and AI theme sustainability, and deteriorating international flows into US equity funds in recent months Good morning! [8:37 am] ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.18%) as of 8:30 am AEST. Major US benchmarks higher, though a last minute rally boosted indices from intraday lows A few mixed catalysts including looming US government shutdown, US-China trade relations back in focus Big session for commodities, with gold soaring almost 3% to record highs and copper prices jump to almost US$5/lb, though oil prices dipped on OPEC+ production concerns If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap. ASX 200 futures are marginally lower as bond yields edge up, tightening financial conditions. Energy stocks may offset some equity weakness due to stable crude prices. RSI readings suggest the index is neither overbought nor oversold, favoring range-bound trade.